Special Weather update May 13 2003
Special weather report

NOTE! THIS REPORT IS MADE BY REQUEST AND HOLDS A LARGER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO COVERAGE OF A PROLONGED TIME PERIOD.

All through today we have been in extensive talks with the mets in US and Europe, trying to get a grip on the overall weather situation.

The forecast:

The Monsoon
The Monsoon will not hit Everest by the 25th as rumored. At the present there is no movement in the Monsoon, though it is expected to start to move north towards India in the near future. 
Last year the Monsoon hit Sri Lanka May 28th and India mainland May 30. This was 3 days ahead of normal. There is no indication that the Monsoon is earlier this year.

The Monsoon reached eastern Nepal by June 8 in 2002, well after the climbers left Everest.

The present weather system
At the present there is a cyclonic formation in the southern parts of the Bay of Bengal. It is moving north and is expected to reach northern Bay of Bengal May 15. It will then turn and move north-east over land, away from the Everest region. Everest will probably be affected by showers during the weekend. This is common for the season.

There is a semi-permanent high over the Arabian Sea and a trough over Pakistan. Both systems will move eastwards over India. At the present it looks like the high will dominate over the low, but it is still to early to be sure. 

Summit days?
The Mets see no "weather window" for this week and the weekend. There might be brief periods of lower summit wind, but a finger of the main jet wind is still positioned over Everest, bringing wind speeds around 20 m/s at the summit level.
In the beginning of next week the mets see a possible lowering of winds, and initial table data shows summit speeds at app. 10 m/s beginning Monday afternoon.

PLEASE NOTE! 7 DAYS OR LONGER FORECASTS WILL HOLD A HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY.

First and last summit stats

Summit statistics
Year       First Summit       Last Summit       Most Summits
1998       May 18               May 27              May 20      25 climbers
1999       May 5                 May 29              May 26      23 climbers
2000       May 15               May 28              May 16      23 climbers
2001       May 19               May 26              May 23      88 climbers
2002       May 16               May 30              May 16      77 climbers
.